Raila Odinga has to continuously plaster-over cracks in the ODM caused by the Rift Valley bloc headed by Mr William Ruto that wants to continuously flex its muscle.
March 12th, 2009
Perhaps Raila and Kibaki should call the PNU bluff and quit the coalition
By Macharia Gaitho
We have the official word that ODM will not be quitting the Grand Coalition government. Yet the more Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s team makes noise about being short-changed, the more it’s clear they are between a rock and a hard place.
There was a time when if Mr Odinga as much as coughed, his PNU counterparts would cower under the nearest table. He had, in many ways, saved all their skins by agreeing to go into the power-sharing pact with President Kibaki.
Now when the ODM group voices complaints about unfair distribution of power and attendant goodies, the common and enthusiastic retort from the PNU cheerleaders is, go jump in the sea.
That is Mr Odinga’s dilemma. Unlike some hardliners in ODM, Mr Odinga is both a pragmatist and a patient man. He could not have pulled off a deal that handed him full executive authority and kicked President Kibaki upstairs to twiddle thumbs as ceremonial Head of State.
But he probably reasoned that half a loaf was better than one, and he had the patience to bid his time as number two — while trying to convince his supporters that he was joint number one — while preparing for the next election.
But not everyone is as patient, and Mr Odinga has to placate increasingly restive supporters who are demanding more than a ceremonial premiership.
He has to continuously plaster-over cracks in the ODM caused by the Rift Valley bloc headed by Mr William Ruto that wants to continuously flex its muscle.
And he has counter perceptions that he allowed himself to be taken for a ride by the PNU groupings that jealously hold on to all the instruments of real power and privilege despite the lifeline earned with the power-sharing arrangement.
Many in the ODM are also concerned that as the people grow more and more disillusioned with the coalition government, they too are losing out.
The solution for many in ODM is to distance themselves from PNU and, in effect, blame the coalition partner for any failings of the government.
Loudly complaining about not have a real share of power, however, does not seem to be working, especially when the examples provided include demands to be allowed to name judges, military commanders, police chiefs, district commissioners and other public officials who should be insulated form politics.
It also became apparent that making so much noise while firmly holding on to the ministerial flags amounts to wanting to have your cake and eat it.
WHY ISN’T A DRAMATIC GESTURE like walking out of coalition not on the cards? Maybe because the passage of time changes the landscape. At the time ODM went into the coalition, they held all the trump cards.
Their angry supporters, in the wake of the suspect vote counting that handed President Kibaki a second term, had made the country ungovernable.
A president sworn in hurriedly in the security of State House lacked all legitimacy, and looked destined to preside over the collapse on the nation. Eventually the two principals came together in a shotgun wedding because none wanted to be held responsible for destroying Kenya.
What would happen if Mr Odinga walked out of the government now? There would be a political crisis and there would be some unrest, but there is no telling whether the people would rise in popular protest such that what remained of the government would crumble.
Chances are that a severely weakened President Kibaki would serve out the rest of his term even more of lame duck than he already is, but president all the same.
Mr Odinga and his troops would retreat to the Opposition benches from where they would make the government’s legislative agenda impossible yet without the numbers to force a decisive vote of no confidence.
PNU leaders at the moment seem to delight in daring ODM to quit. Perhaps their bluff should be called. If it became clear that Mr Odinga will not take nonsense and is ready to go back to the trenches, perhaps PNU, itself riven by divisions over the Kibaki Succession, would be hit with a hard dose of reality.
Initially I was as disgusted and angry as everybody else that our president would summon the Press to yet again make some reiteration about his domestic situation. With time, however, I’m beginning to think that the President is more man than any of us realise.
Really, which other Kenyan man would, brave all the wicked laughter, outright hostility and opprobrium across the broad just to re-assure his lady that she is the only one in his life? None that I know of.
source.nation.ke