Expiry of Tsvangirai's Term Causes Anxiety
January 12, 2009
Coltart said Zanu PF was now a shadow of its former self. Mugabe turns 85 in February and is increasingly out of touch with reality.
"He has retained some of his patronage system, ironically, because the transitional government has not been set up, but once it is he will be even weaker," he said.
Constitution Amendment No. 19 Bill, which gives legal teeth to the September agreement, has just been gazette and Coltart claims by mid-January it should be passed into law, making the process of transition almost irreversible.
But the main MDC has threatened to block it unless other key issues are also settled, namely, the continuing violence, the fair allocation of ministries, key government appointments and the functions and composition of the National Security Council.
Mugabe on the other hand is refusing to budge.
Infact, the prospects for an inclusive government being set up look less and less promising after Mugabe’s rhetoric at the end of last year, with Tsvangirai holding out for a genuine share of authority, citing the recent evidence of the torture of MDC cadres and civil society activists accused of supporting the MDC.
"The wider international community including the IMF, World Bank, UN, EU and the US, is going to have to give the agreement a chance by helping to stabilise Zimbabwe’s economy and address the humanitarian crisis," Coltart said.
"While there is understandable scepticism about the agreement, it is important that these concerns do not become a self-fulfilling prophecy. One thing is certain. If the MDC is unable to improve the lives of Zimbabweans, the agreement will fail and the region will be further destabilised."
He continued: "Some argue that if the MDC waits a while the Mugabe regime will collapse. This is a possibility but a huge gamble. There is every chance that in the event of Mugabe losing power some of the more radical elements within the military may seize power, which in turn could see Zimbabwe degenerate into even worse forms of anarchy than exist at present.
"Furthermore, a wait-and-see policy will not address the extreme humanitarian crisis that needs to be resolved immediately if the lives of potentially hundreds of thousands are to be saved."
Zimbabwe is in the vortex of a perfect humanitarian storm; an unprecedented convergence of AIDS, poverty, hyperinflation, malnutrition, a regime that does not care and, now, cholera. And the humanitarian crisis has its roots in the political crisis, Coltart said.
"There is no doubt that the agreement is seriously flawed," Coltart said. "The powers of the Prime Minister are weak and the prospects of securing consensus in a Cabinet in which the combined MDC factions have a narrow majority are limited. Scepticism in the West may also result in limited support for the transitional government."
Coltart acknowledged that Zanu-PF has demonstrated extreme bad faith since the signing of the agreement and is unlikely to change even once the transitional government has been established.
There has been a surge in abductions of human rights and political activists. Zanu PF also retains all the coercive ministries, including defence, the secret police and the police.
"Zimbabweans suffer from such a victim mentality that there is a danger that in focusing so much on the negative aspects of the agreement we will ignore the real opportunities that the agreement provides to transform Zimbabwe from an autocracy to a democracy," he said, adding joining government was the only option available to the main MDC.
source.zimdaily