Uganda: Opposition and ruling party in frantic race to defuse Otunnu return

August 30th, 2009

 

Kampala (Uganda) - The return of Olara Otunnu has elicited a new buzz of activity in Uganda, with the ruling party and the opposition frantically manoeuvring to defuse the impact on the country's political landscape.

The former UN undersecretary-general for Children in Armed Conflict went into exile following the overthrow in 1986 of Tito Okello's military junta that, five months earlier, had overturned the UPC government of Dr Apollo Milton Obote.

Mr Otunnu served as Foreign Affairs minister in the Okello government. He returns at a time when the opposition is looking for fresh blood to give President Yoweri Museveni a run at the polls given the main opposition figurehead, Kiiza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change, has failed twice -- in 2001 and in the country's first multiparty election in 2006.

The question is whether Mr Otunnu is a stronger candidate -- or even a more galvanising factor for the opposition -- than Dr Besigye, who enjoys popularity among the elite of the urban south.

The FDC leader has also won over sections of Uganda's north and of late made inroads into the National Resistance Movement stronghold of western Uganda. The Uganda People's Congress is marketing Mr Otunnu as a clean man, free from corruption and political controversy, the ideal Museveni challenger.

Mr Otunnu told journalists: "This country is in a deep crisis. The important thing that Ugandans can do in addressing this crisis is to reunite and come together as one country, as one people with a common destiny.

"None of us on our own, not the people of Buganda, the people of Kigezi, not those in Acholi, not UPC, not FDC on its own will be able to accomplish what this country is yearning for. We must come together."

This sends the signal that he is keen on a united front to kick out the incumbent. But it is the question of his role in this setup that is causing discomfort to both the ruling party and the opposition.

The ruling NRM has been working to gain support in the north, Uganda's most marginalised region, and since the return of peace there three years ago, it has been attempting to address that perception and create a clean image there.

Within a week of Mr Otunnu's return, however, debate has suddenly returned to the north question. The region was the theatre of a long, brutal armed conflict in which the rebel Lord's Resistance Army is accused of having committed war crimes and crimes against humanity.

But other quarters, including Mr Otunnu, have levelled similar accusations against the Uganda People's Defence Forces.

Suddenly, the Army is facing a barrage of revelations that bring into question its credibility in the two-decade-long war. Army Spokesman Lt. Col. Felix Kulayigye has named a number of UPDF top officers who were convicted and disgracefully dismissed for their role in the north.

In all the past three elections, President Museveni has performed dismally in the political north -- a large area that covers the war-ravaged Teso, Lango, Acholi and West Nile regions.

With the opposition steadily eating into the NRM's power base in the south, east and west, Museveni's hopes for clawing back ground in the north could be dealt a blow following the return of Mr Otunnu, who hails from the Acholi region and in 2006 famously accused the UPDF of perpetuating a genocide there.

"Certainly, his return reinforces our position in the north and, you know, the NRM is extremely worried about northern Uganda," said Morris Ogenga Latigo, Leader of the Opposition in Parliament.

But Prof Latigo also voiced other concerns, essentially casting Mr Otunnu as a rival for his party's presidency who should not be allowed to stroll his way into the leadership of a coalition of the main opposition parties FDC, UPC, the Justice Forum and the Conservative Party.

Clearly, there is a sideshow to Mr Otunnu's return given the opposition, whilst desperate to end President Museveni's stranglehold on power, has worries of its own.

For instance, FDC is keen to maintain its status as the leading opposition party -- with its president, Dr Besigye, as the coalition's frontman -- a situation Mr Otunnu, a UPC stalwart, could upset if his party pushes for him to lead an opposition coalition in 2011.

"It has never happened anywhere that a minor party can provide leadership in a coalition. And that is the negative aspect of his return; it upsets the status quo in the opposition. Our concern is that UPC may want to use Otunnu to regain ground in the north, but we have made it clear to UPC that we have to define where he fits in," said Prof Latigo.

Another UPC diehard, Chwa County legislator Livingstone Okello Okello, told The EastAfrican that Mr Otunnu has "everything" it takes to lead the opposition, but he knows that a public statement in support of the former diplomat could throw the opposition off balance.

Mr Okello was cagey about his preferred choice for leader of the coalition: "My position at this point is a bit tricky. I'll know what to do at the right time. Right now, I don't want to jeopardise anything."

The opposition won't give anything away for fear of jeopardising the chance to use Mr Otunnu's stature to neutralise Museveni's international propaganda that has kept him in the good books of donors, allowing him to get away with serious corruption, human rights and governance issues, said Prof Latigo.

More importantly, the opposition will ride on Mr Otunnu's connections to source for funding.

With the Electoral Commission lax on enforcing the Political Parties and Organisations Act -- which, among other things, restricts the amount of money that can be sourced from foreign backers -- the opposition could use this as a window to bring in resources critical to giving the ruling party a good fight.

 

source.The East African (Kenya)