Lessons learnt - South Africa election

April 27th, 2009

 

Cape Town (South Africa) - Despite countrywide celebrations, rapturous applause by party agents at the elections centre, the hugs and toasts by party leaders and the victory speech by the party president, the ANC's support base has decreased noticeably in the fourth democratic elections.

It scored 66 percent compared to the 69 percent in the 2004 general elections, a psychological setback for party leader Jacob Zuma because all his predecessors led the party to a resounding victory in the past three polls. This should be a warning to the monolithic 97-year-old liberation movement that its internal power struggle has weakened its organisation, support and power.

While capturing 11.6 million of the 17.9 million votes, and retaining all but one province, the party's support base has decreased in all eight provinces but KwaZulu-Natal.

However, the drop could also be attributed to more than two million more voters - including first time voters - going to the polling stations in the tensely contested general elections.

With the ANC receiving around 1.2 million more than in 2004, it could be that its own old supporters turned against it, with Cope causing some damage.

However, the facts are that the ANC lost the Western Cape to the DA and has shed 10 percent support in four provinces, an unprecedented trend that should worry any ruling party.

But it has fought a good battle by launching the most intense campaign, dragging the 90-year-old Nelson Mandela out of retirement, unveiling the most expensive and ambitious manifesto, mobilising its almost moribund structures and reconnecting with the masses it disengaged with at the last elections.

The party faced the toughest terrain and worst challenges since it came back from exile in 1990.

A second splinter group broke away from its ranks following a bitter power struggle, its service delivery track record - though not that bad - was questioned by sporadic protests, its good intentions through corrective policies were dented by a flight of skills, and it is led by the most controversial leader since Dr James Moroka in 1949.

While trying to stabilise itself internally and restore the confidence of international investors following an abrupt, disturbing change of government, the ANC had to fend off rapid bombardment against the moral deportment and leadership stature of Zuma.

Zuma's legal battles raised questions about the ANC's commitment to democratic principles, with the opposition raising fears - real or imagined - of a threat to the constitutional firmness of the state.

The global economy took a dangerous downturn, derailing the ANC's economic growth path and threatening to cause more job losses. The days of the budget surplus are over, the account deficit is still hovering at a dangerous 7 percent of GDP, while poverty figures - according to the government's own development indicators - show that 41 percent of the population still lives on R367 a month, perpetuating inequality.

The country is terrorised by crime, with the government's response seemingly inadequate.

This state of affairs could have toppled any government. Despite such a gloomy picture, the ANC - given its performance figure of more than 65 percent in all the seven general and local elections - seems to be the only hope for the majority who know no other democratic government.

The DA's Helen Zille - who pulled a Stop-Zuma rabbit out of her campaign hat - describes such loyalty to the ANC, despite failures - as "politics of identity". Or is it that the 11.6 million voters prefer the devil they know?

Some point to the absence of any alternative party ready to govern as the DA's identity repels the majority of blacks, while the other parties on the left of the ANC are a grave disappointment.

On the other hand, the ANC's welfare policies have changed the lives of millions of South Africans who never had electricity, grants, running water, houses or decent toilets. Given South Africa's poverty levels, politics of race and vast rural areas, the ANC remains the party of choice, for now. The drop in support, no matter how small, should be seen as seismic vibrations. Its largest loss is in the Western Cape, where provincial support dropped from 45.2 percent to just over 31 percent.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe last week tried to play down the results in the province. However, the provincial party structure was badly organised, and Mcebisi Skwatsha's leadership - whose failures include forgetting to register for by-elections in January - was so poor that the party's national executive committee had to place it under curatorship.

The ANC's support in the Eastern Cape - which was always its stronghold - dropped by 10 percent to 68.8 percent. The party has scored around 80 percent since 1994, despite the province being one of the poorest and most corrupt.

While the ANC will rule all provinces but the Western Cape, its support has declined in many of the provinces.

 

source.Cape Argus (South Africa)